Chris Stark: AR8 clean power auction is last shot at 2030 targets

The AR8 clean power auction is, in Chris Stark’s own words, ‘the last roll of the dice more or less’ for bringing large-scale renewable capacity online before 2030, with the round pulled forward to July to maximise delivery chances. Stark, head of the UK’s reNEWS-interviewed Mission for Clean Power, made the admission in a wide-ranging podcast conversation that was notably candid about both the opportunity and the constraints bearing down on the government’s clean power programme.

Why the AR8 clean power auction carries so much weight

Stark was careful to frame the stakes without abandoning the longer view. Further allocation rounds will follow: AR9 and AR10 are already anticipated, and he was clear that the energy transition does not end at midnight on 31 December 2030. But the physics of project development means that only capacity contracted in AR8 stands a realistic chance of reaching commercial operation by that date. Every round after it, however well subscribed, is effectively building for the 2030s.

That logic has driven a decision to bring the AR8 timetable forward to July. The earlier the contracts are awarded, the more time developers have to work through planning, supply chain and grid connection processes before the target year arrives. It is a straightforward calculation, and Stark made no attempt to dress it up as anything more comfortable.

On the scale of the round, he was bullish. ‘I think AR8 has the prospect of being just as big as AR7, and I guess we are going to go big on it,’ he said. Onshore technologies are expected to deliver strong value alongside offshore wind, a reflection of the faster build times that onshore projects can typically achieve once contracts are secured. The combination of ambition and timeline compression makes this auction one of the more consequential the UK has run.

Gate 2 disruption clouds the pipeline picture

The upbeat framing on AR8 sits alongside a more troubled assessment of the grid connection queue. Stark acknowledged directly that Gate 2 connection reforms have created considerable disruption across the development pipeline. ‘I fully acknowledge this is much, much more thorny than I hoped it would be,’ he said, in language that does not leave much room for spin.

The reforms were designed to clear a queue clogged with speculative projects and restore confidence in connection dates for schemes that are genuinely ready to build. In principle, that is the right objective: a queue full of phantom capacity serves nobody, and developers with real projects have been waiting behind positions that may never materialise. But clearing the queue has proved messier in practice than the theory suggested.

Stark said large volumes of new offers are now being issued as the reform process reaches its final stages, which he presented as evidence that the system is beginning to work through the backlog. The priority now, he argued, is ensuring those offers are of high quality and that engagement between developers, the system operator and network companies improves. That last point is worth holding. Poor communication between those three parties has been a recurring complaint from the development community, and acknowledging it from the Mission for Clean Power is at least an honest starting point.

For projects already at advanced or construction stage, Stark said clarity on their connection positions is expected ‘very shortly’, though he acknowledged delays in completing that part of the process. Developers who have been waiting for that certainty will judge the commitment against the delivery, not the announcement.

The full interview is available on the reNEWS Podcast, as well as on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. AR8 contracts, when they land in July, will tell us whether the ambition was matched by the mechanism.