Germany solar capacity milestone masks a 87GW gap to 2030 target

Germany’s installed solar capacity has exceeded 128GW, a Germany solar capacity milestone that technically hits the country’s 2026 expansion target under the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), but industry association BSW-Solar is already warning that the next set of targets may be out of reach before the ink is dry on the reform meant to deliver them.

BSW-Solar, drawing on its analysis of the Federal Network Agency’s Market Data Register, confirmed that more than six million solar power systems are now installed across Germany. Solar accounted for around one fifth of Germany’s net electricity generation in 2025, a share that reflects two consecutive years of strong deployment: around 17.5GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity was newly installed in each of 2024 and 2025.

The numbers behind the Germany solar capacity milestone

Hitting 128GW is real. The caveat is also real. The EEG sets a statutory target of 215GW of installed solar capacity by 2030, with interim targets of 172GW by 2028 and 400GW by 2040. To stay on track, an average of around 20GW of additional solar capacity per year will be required in the coming years, meaningfully above the 17.5GW annual rate achieved in 2024 and 2025. That leaves roughly 87GW still to be installed before the end of the decade.

‘The 128-Gigawatt milestone is a success. But anyone who concludes from this that solar expansion will now run by itself is mistaken,’ said Carsten Körnig, managing director of BSW-Solar. ‘By 2030, around 87 gigawatts of solar capacity still needs to be added. To achieve this, the annual rate of expansion must increase rather than decrease.’

The arithmetic is not forgiving. If deployment stays at the 17.5GW pace seen over the past two years, Germany would reach approximately 192.5GW by 2030, well short of the 215GW target and missing the 2028 interim milestone by a considerable margin.

EEG 2027 reform: the policy changes giving BSW-Solar pause

The concern is not abstract. The EEG 2027 reform, approved by the federal cabinet on 29 July 2026 and due to take effect on 1 January 2027, contains several provisions that BSW-Solar argues could undermine the very expansion it is meant to secure, according to A New Climate.

Among the changes drawing scrutiny is a new permanent cap on feed-in power for smaller solar installations, limiting them to 50% of their installed capacity. The measure, detailed by Freshfields, is framed as a grid-stability tool, synchronising renewable expansion with network capacity. Critics will note that it also reduces the economic case for smaller rooftop installations precisely when roof-by-roof deployment is supposed to be accelerating.

The shift in auction volumes compounds that concern. Under the EEG 2027 draft, the auction volume for ground-mounted PV installations increases from 9,900 MW to 14,000 MW of installed capacity. Rooftop PV, however, sees its available auction volume cut from 2,300 MW to 1,500 MW, according to Gleiss Lutz. The trade-off is clear: large-scale ground-mounted projects get more support; smaller distributed installations get less.

BSW-Solar has called on the Bundestag to amend the reform during the parliamentary process, before it clears into law. The association’s specific concerns include planned changes to support for small PV systems, stronger requirements for direct marketing, and the partial removal of compensation payments for grid-related curtailment. Each of those changes, BSW-Solar argues, could slow investment and jeopardise the statutory expansion targets.

Battery storage: the missing piece

Germany’s solar capacity milestone also throws the storage gap into sharper relief. BSW-Solar argued that battery storage needs to be expanded significantly faster, enabling solar power generated during high-output periods to be stored and dispatched later rather than curtailed. Without that flexibility, a larger solar fleet risks creating grid management problems that the 50% feed-in cap is designed to contain, but which no cap alone can fully resolve.

The Bundestag’s handling of the EEG 2027 amendments will be the next test of whether Germany’s policy framework can match the pace its own statutory targets demand. BSW-Solar’s position is unambiguous: the parliamentary process is the last realistic opportunity to correct the measures it believes will slow deployment rather than accelerate it.